China begins to reorganize it self with the goal to become world’s power number one economically, politically and military. Recent IT sector’s chaotic days in the Chinese stock markets were summoned by bigger clarity from communists party on new sector’s regulations. The signs of increasing regulations and communists government supremacy on technology and other strategic sectors began few years ago with Ant’s group struggles to go public. Probably already then the message was clear: decades of relatively free and sovereign businesses are coming to the end.
Recently Communist party added more fuel to the fire with increased scrutinize of IT sector companies over consumers privacy, data security, overseas listings, competition and mergers. This step is very closely related with China’s new key word which is incorporated into overall development strategy – an artificial intelligence (AI). Clear goals and concrete moves beginning from children AI education layer, should make China an AI world superpower by 2025. Where most crucial economy sectors and social being of citizens will be partially managed and protected. Constant and more efficient surveillance of the people and businesses sounds alarming for western countries, however in the context of already highly controlled society it looks more like a simple step further in making the live of the majority more convenient and responsive.
Economy
The political shift to the sizable control extension was clearly reflected in local stock markets. Below is the table comparing Hong Kong stock market index dynamics in comparison with US NASDAQ index for one year.
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/stock-market
China’s new 5 year economy plan for the year 2025 has for the first time dropped GDP growth quantitative targets. Overall, it has much more new guidelines how to increase quality measures of economics that would be mostly absorbed by middle class. Moreover, big part of the plan is mixed with technology agenda and circular economy. As technology part with AI in front seat is already driving China to new age, Eco-friendly circular economy model is still lacking clarity from the communist party. However, for the biggest population in the world, when most of fossil fuels needed for energy are imported, this question might be open for some time.
“Dual circulation” is the future strategy for a central government, it’s one more important guideline for China’s future economy. Where the domestic economy growth should be the fundamental factor of overall GDP growth. Export should retreat from a central axis to a complementary part of the country’s development. We shouldn’t forget, that China managed to reduce poverty from 50% to 0,6% during last 20 years. For that reason, the increase of middle class numbers significantly sounds very doable. This boost should make an internal economic engine not so reliant on the export.
China quite actively is exploring possibilities to change or at least to limit the dominance of the United States dollar as a main reserves and transactions currency of the world for some years. Even though, big part of the experts still rules out the yuan’s readiness to do this transformation, other forms and combinations might give fruits one day. Such as, close ties with Russia on this topic, push to list commodities in yuan on different world markets, re-balance of dollar dominated foreign exchange reserve and bonds investments. Moreover, Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese yuan will become a worlds third most used foreign exchange reserve currency by 2030 lining up next after US dollar and euro.
Other big part of “Let’s make China great again” plan is the military dominance in the region and beyond. With a clear priority of building technologically competitive war machines and bringing AI into domestic military sector, China clearly aims for the supervisor position at least for now in Asia region. No wonder, why Unites States of America is drastically shifting its main Pentagon strategy from Islamic terrorism to east Asia and Oceania. The concern that US already lost a battle to China on technological transformation in military, was recently shared by Nicolas Chaillan, the Pentagon’s first chief software officer. Very clear steps of China’s intentions to incorporate Hong Kong and Taiwan completely to the mainland China structures just indicates, that China has grown up and will be drawing it’s own rules. Not following the order left by western colonial system.
Blockchain threat
Extra grip of increasing control of communist party is related with an attempt to completely ban crypto-currency transactions. Even though this step is an enforcement to limit black market transactions, taxes avoidance and energy consumption for crypto mining. More threatening indirect reason is behind block-chain mechanism in general. The possibility to decentralize any significant material component of human life, such as money, contractual rights or other areas that are supervised by the government, is a direct warning to a current communism model in China. The government won’t let the development of self sustainable mechanisms that will allow formation and existence of social constructs.
The combination of strengthening control in core future sectors, clear fight with possibly increasing significance of business world and showoff to people that party is hear to protect and improve your lives, might be a good set of measures that are uniting the nation in such a bumpy period of pandemic years that all planet is facing now.
From the eyes of westerner, China still lacks core democratic and humanistic values implemented in the society. On the other hand, specific western value set isn’t the only combination of tools for successful creation of the dominant country or civilization. And as many scientists, politics or other great thinkers are already predicting for at least 50 years, China might be on the verge to go further and to become a dominant power of the world.
One of the leading previous century civilizations historian Arnold Joseph Toynbee described the dominant factors of development and importantly the decay of human civilizations. Key circumstance he relates with transformation of “Creative minority” into “Dominant minority”. “Creative minority” could be understood as leading and most influential members of the society. Who shapes politics, economics, social life and international relations. When this part of community begins to worship their “previous self”, pride takes over the creativity in the face of new challenges. New “Dominant minority” forces the majority to obey without meriting obedience. According to A.J.Toynbee this is the element that begins the break-up of the civilization.
The communist party clearly knows where they are heading to, what they need to do and what to achieve. Most of above mentioned actions and planned components are necessary for more efficient and rewording management of the majority. When you are able constantly to convince, inspire and lead 1,4 Billion people even with measures that won’t be suitable for western world. You have a good chance to become a dominant force of the planet.
Current Chinese political creative minority shows deep interest in becoming the most influential superpower of the world and confidently paves the road to it. The main intrigue remains on chosen steps suited for reaching the goal. So far we saw that measures taken by Chinese communist party for solutions of internal political disputes are incompatible with Western people values. Due to the fact, that very often government takes action very decisive, uncompromising and with the ignorance of controversies related with human rights. The lack of internal and external dialog makes China less predictable and more troubling crucial player of the world.
Pragmatic view on values
Wondering, why suddenly western countries are so interested in democracy processes in Taiwan? Are the United States and European Union trying to defend their common democratic and human values exceptionally in this tiny island? On the other hand, staying relatively ignorant with the pressure of China on Tibet or Uygur population genocide. Maybe the heartbreaking situation of Taiwanese become so humanistic just with the extreme global shortage of microchips? Might be just a coincidence but Taiwan produces biggest part of world’s semiconductor chips for all electronic devises.
Why western countries are so concerned with the wake up of the Chinese dragon? Seems like, they didn’t abused, exploited and took advantage of all Asia region for centuries. We definitely have a good chance to live happily, in peace and harmony as one big human race family.